Rebounding Like Wilt Chamberlain, Loopholes An EV Can Drive Through, Driverless Car Delivery

July 7, 2023
It’s Friday and we’re feeling the flow as we talk about the sales rebound that is rolling strong. We also discuss the IRA loophole that is changing the EV sales landscape, as well as a global first in autonomy going down in Las Vegas.
Listen On
Apple Podcasts IconSpotify Icon

Show Notes with links:

The June numbers are in and the industry rebound is rolling on as auto sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.8 million, close to the upper end of forecasts and up from 15.1 million in May.

  • Despite remaining below the 15 million mark in 2022 due to low inventory, sales have maintained or exceeded this level in 2023. However, they still fall short of the 2015-2019 boom years when sales exceeded 17 million annually. 
  • GlobalData, noting the resilience of American consumers amid near-record high prices and increasing interest rates, increased its 2023 sales forecast to 15.4 million, up by 500,000.
  • Just about everyone is winning: Ford: +9.9%, General Motors: +18%, Toyota: +15%, Stellantis: +6%, Honda: +54%, Hyundai: +10%, Kia: +8%, Nissan: +33%, Subaru: +28%, Mazda: +97%, Audi: +16%, Volvo: +53%, Genesis: +33%, Ram: +3%, Jeep: -3%, Chrysler: +33%, Dodge: +37%, Fiat: -42%, Alfa Romeo: -25%
  • Some analysts predict a cooling in sales pace in the second half of the year due to rising interest rates and affordability concerns.

An unexpected loophole in the Inflation Reduction Act could make it easier and cheaper for car buyers to switch to an EV. The legislation originally established strict assembly and material sourcing criteria for vehicles to qualify for federal tax credits, but the new rules may not apply to leased vehicles. 

  • Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said, “So if the car companies set up a commercial leasing division and they buy their own vehicles in it, then they get the tax credit and they can pass it onto the consumer and they don’t have to be trucks or vans," Bown said. "No other criteria apply. You can be super rich and qualify for this or the vehicle can be priced any price. There is also no restriction that it has be made in North America or that the batteries have to be sourced from outside of China."
  • Edmunds reports about 37% of EVs bought in April were leased, up from 17% in April 2022. In May, about 44% were leased, up from 15% in the year-ago period. For June, 44% were leased compared with 13% in the year-ago period.
  • Kia’s EV6 had a lease rate of 72% up from 2% a year ago
  • Mustang Mach-E does not qualify for the full tax credit in a purchase because its battery does not meet the IRA's sourcing requirements. But it can pass along the full tax credit through a lease
  • This has produced some very affordable results for some: Nissan North America is maintaining competitive lease rates for its Leaf electric vehicle, recognizing it as a crucial part of their electrification strategy. The 2023 Leaf S is being offered at a lease rate of $309 per month for 36 months, with $1,999 due at signing, and the 2023 Leaf SV Plus at $399 per month for the same period, also with $1,999 due at signing. These prices include the $7,500 tax credit, according to spokeswoman Jeannie Whited.

Halo.Car, a provider of on-demand electric vehicles, has started offering driverless delivery of its remote-controlled EVs

  • This is a first of its kind service, globally.. The program is launching in Las Vegas after four years of safety-driver assisted testing.
  • The service allows customers to book a Halo.Car EV which is then remotely delivered to the customer’s location.
  • The company retrofits its EV fleet with custom-developed components such as cameras, modems, and antennas, enabling trained remote pilots to remotely drive the vehicle using video and sensor data streamed from the car.
  • For now,  the driverless vehicles will initially be followed by a second vehicle to monitor the health and safety of the driverless vehicle.

Paul Daly: 0:32Yo, yo Friday feelings all day long.Summertime it's hot out. We're talking about the whole industry rebounding like Wilt Chamberlain loopholes and Evie can drive through in a driverless car delivery. Not the way you think.driverless car delivery doesn't it? doesn't do it justice, but you have to wait a few minutes.So we get to that point.

Kyle Mountsier: 0:53

When you dropped Wilt Chamberlain in the title for today in school. I was like,I had a picture in my head. I don't know if you've seen the picture, but it's like, it's black and white. Wilt Chamberlain has three inch shorts, right? Looks like he's a long distance runner, socks halfway up his legs, and is just dunking on a

Paul Daly: 1:16

Russian so minus the dunking. Isn't that what hipsters in Nashville addressing like basically the same exact thing. If you're listening, and you were high socks, short shorts and white sneakers. It's disgusting. Because I'm old.

Unknown: 1:30

Now, apparently 70s and80s. Part

Paul Daly: 1:33

I was born in 79. So that wasn't even part of like,by the time I could remember things like that. Wasn't it anymore? No, I'm just gonna,it's gonna be it again. Isn't

Kyle Mountsier: 1:41

that funny? How just things like it's just constant. It's a constant cycle.

Paul Daly: 1:46

I just not not like picture one of those like,someone just like that getting out of like, like a Tesla. Look,the

Kyle Mountsier: 1:55

Japanese national yesterday. That's what happened. It

Paul Daly: 2:00

just happened. Just have it all bad. Well, we're having a lot of fun. We know you all are too. We're gonna have a whole lot of fun. In September together last week is September26 27th is going to be ASOTU con. It's ramping up like crazy.We've been starting to talk about it more we're about to release the first 20 Some speakers next week. It is a star studded roster, the first 20 or30 people, no one has said no to us yet, by the way. I know.They're all like yep, coming every single which is a lot different than last year. And way different than the year before. Because two years ago was a little bit of begging last year is like the real estate of calm we have a little more to do this year, people understand what's up, people are excited to be there. We hope you can be there too. Obviously, we can't fit everyone. So if you get your tickets early, you will make sure that you get there. And you'll also get them cheaper because this year ticket prices go up the closer we get to an event and if you need help. So somebody yesterday mentioned that they wanted to go they asked their boss to go and they got shut down. So if you need help you put

Kyle Mountsier: 3:05

your boss on a conference call with you let us know

Paul Daly: 3:08

we have literally a little link, we will literally get on a call with them because it's super important that we get more people closer to the front lines there and will convince your boss that you're going to come back and be twice as excited about the industry maybe10 times as excited about the insurance industry and more effective and more ready to go and that by far the ROI will be there. So we got your back. You hit up your boys. Alright, let's talk about some news talking about oh, right after this we're going into all things use cars.Let's mention that with David Long, awesome clubhouse,remember we 200 ish 150 200people in there talking about the used car business. So there's a lot to talk about now.Download the clubhouse app,search all things use cars,you'll find your way there.Alright, let's talk about this.So the June numbers are in the industry rebound is rolling on as auto sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate or the SAAR? If you ever hear people say, SAAR, this is what they mean, a 15 point 8 million This is close to the top end of the beginning of the year forecasts that really range from15.1 to 15.9. So we're crushing it, everybody, we're doing great. Despite remaining below50 million units through all of2022 We're way up or we're actually getting closer to 60million units. So we've really just been crushing it inventories coming back. You know, even the, you know, with interest rates, you know what I mean? This is one of the things where that

Kyle Mountsier: 4:31

tension, and I don't know if you saw yesterday but the ADP report came out payroll? Yep, I did. Jobs doubled. What they what they were expected to it's like,everything should tell you things should be going the other way. But they're just like, up into the right. Yep. You know,it's it's really really quite impressive. You know, we're looking at like, just everyone winning listen to all these numbers. This is crazy Ford Up9.9% GM up 18% Toyota up 15%Still ANSYS up 6% Honda of 54%Well, it's not the biggest I can't wait for this one. It's unbelievable Kia up 8% Nissan33% Subaru 28% cars you ready?You 97% Y'all I

Paul Daly: 5:21

smiled for you Kyle.I smiled for you. I went back sure has been growing

Kyle Mountsier: 5:25

so so fast the the advent of some of their new like mid to high line crossover utility vehicles, the CX 50.I've been eyeing that thing like crazy. It is a gorgeous,gorgeous cars. Check the

Paul Daly: 5:39

actual report when it says a Mazda 97% Like they did.They did it a couple went down Jeep is down 3% Fiat down 42%what they're doing over there. I don't know that. I mean, that's we know that the Fiat showrooms are where everybody stores their accounting boxes now. Us. I literally during accounting season, I was walking through the local Fiat dealership and it's where all those like beggars boxes were stepped in. I was like, Man, I'm not going to I'm not going to take a picture of that. But I'll tell you why your I guess some of cooling and sales pace in the second half of the year due to the increased interest rates still going up?Chances are I'm going up more or pretty high. And also the affordability concerns we were talking about. But for now, it's like man, are we coming back?Coming back strong. Just partnership. What a way to start the second half of the year?Yeah,

Kyle Mountsier: 6:33

absolutely. I mean, I'm even just seeing like anecdotally, because we work with a few dealers and like kind of have some insight into just lead traffic. And it's like,just in the three days after July 4. It's just up like think it's summer. Here we go. Yep,

Paul Daly: 6:51

it is. It is. Yep,that's the thing. Those I mean,those numbers are straightforward. No loopholes.Speaking of loopholes. That sounds a cheap one big way. So cheap on your Friday, Friday,you're allowed to have a cheap if this is worth it. This story is worth it because it's gonna have a lot of people spit in their coffee out and unexpected loophole in the inflation Reduction Act can make it easier and cheaper for car buyers to switch to an Eevee the legislation originally established. We know strict assembly rules where the car has to be assembled material where the battery has to be assembled where the battery materials have to come from. Right everybody's like bringing the Big Joe Manson's over there like swinging the axe and they're getting this thing passed.Everything's got to come from us. Well, this new loophole basically sidesteps just about everything. Here right while let's get into this Chad bruh Chad bounds senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economic said. So if the car companies set up a commercial leasing division, and then they buy their own vehicles from themselves as a commercial leasing division, they can get the tax credit on every vehicle and pass it on to the consumer in the form of a lease. It doesn't have to be a truck or a van, no other criteria apply.You could be super rich and qualify the vehicle, the vehicle can be priced at any price because the OEM bought it from themselves, and that was leasing it so they can get the tax credit, and then they can pass it on. Also, there's no restriction that it has to be made in North America, or that the batteries have to be sourced from outside China. Right?

Kyle Mountsier: 8:21

It's like everything because they put in that whole commercial leasing clause, right, because they wanted to get EVs into the commercial. That's unbelievable that like people found that little the loophole that's a big

Paul Daly: 8:33

actually, it's a big loophole. So like, you know, we saw a lot of your European Union leaders come in from, you know,like France and just saying,like, Hey, we got a really bad deal in this, like we're trying to like South Korea, and lobbying against it. And this is one of those things like, I'm not going to rely on government in general, but it's so frustrating that the amount of time energy resources, public debate, all the stuff happen and then for one thing like this to just make it all go away, like from an efficiency standpoint,that just makes my business mind explode. I just imagined Did you ever see the movie Of course you did inside out from Disney. Oh,yeah. And they had had the anger guy right. I just pictured Joe Manchin waking up walking over that control like pushing the happy person out of the way and just pushing both of the Levers forwards right? Yes, absolutely.There's no way so so here's check this out. Here's where the when the power gets to the ground, Edmunds reports 37% of EVs bought in April or leased up from 17 the year prior and they just keep going up check this out. Key V key is Evie six right Kia not manufactured in the US this Evie six isn't the lease rate last month was 72% of all Evie six has released. That's nuts.

Kyle Mountsier: 9:46

There's never been an instance where any type of vehicle has seen a 72% lease rate like I don't even think BMW has ever seen. And lease

Paul Daly: 9:57

well Ford is about to because the Mustang my Mk II as As many of us know, was not a quick didn't qualify because of the size of the battery type of the battery. But guess what it qualifies now? It's fine. It's

Kyle Mountsier: 10:09

unbelievable. I like on one hand, I'm excited about it because it's like,alright. People are getting discounts, right. And there's more access to EVs potentially,across the board. But also it's like, but what like, what if the manufacturer or the commercial lease division just decides to not pass that on? Right? Now?Oh, that'll

Paul Daly: 10:35

be the end? No, but they could pass it on in like,they could hold back, right? We got a $7,500 credit, we're gonna move 6500 of it through to the lease or mess with the residual.It's like net. Evie just got maybe a little closer to profitability. I don't know. But from an affordability standpoint, it's something we've been talking about check this.So Nissan, North America has like really great lease rates. I couldn't believe this. When I read it. The 2023 leaf s is 309a month for 36 months 99. And I do at signing? Like, where are you going to get a car like for that

Kyle Mountsier: 11:09

you're literally not going to get a new car for under lease, except for that it's a lease. And it's like, the leaf has one of the longest running histories of success. So I think you also see because it probably has higher residual values because they know exactly what the vehicle does down the line. And, and like Nissan just has a history to know exactly what the market is going to do with that vehicle. So you know,that they include that $7,500Tax Credit, which makes a whole lot of sense, because $7,500over 36 months, reduce your payment quite significantly. 200bucks a month. And and so, yeah,kudos to Nissan and look, I've had a leaf before and it's a goofy looking vehicle, but I think works.

Paul Daly: 11:53

Just pair that with some high white socks and white shoes, some short shorts.

Kyle Mountsier: 11:57

I think that's a whole that's a whole vibe.Literally, Paul, I'm not even kidding you. At crema in East Nashville.

Paul Daly: 12:04

How do you sell this today?

Kyle Mountsier: 12:07

though? Like literally Is it a leaf? It was a leaf with a dude. Thank God I was short shorts, high white socks,

Paul Daly: 12:15

that's really just you just see the shoes and the socks get up first, right? And then the thighs. But then the dude stands up and he's like,680 my

Kyle Mountsier: 12:25

god the mustache. Unbelievable.

Paul Daly: 12:29

Oh, well, that's the driver of that car begging

Kyle Mountsier: 12:31

people to get out of cars. There you go or not? Segway you may have heard of a company called halo car.They have a they're a provider of on demand electric vehicles,meaning they bring the vehicle to you if you rent a vehicle from them. For the past few years, they've been offering driverless delivery. But they've had a driver actually in the vehicle as like a standby backup driver. But they are recently moving to a fully autonomous remotely delivered rental vehicle to a customer's location and from the drop off location.Basically, what it does is it takes its Evie fleet with and puts in some custom developed components such as cameras,modems, and antennas, enabling trained remote pilots to remotely drive the vehicle using video and sensor data stream from the car. It'll be initially now instead of a driver in the car, followed by a second vehicle behind it to monitor the health and safety of the driverless vehicle. So kudos to them for like, taking the slow game of like, Alright, we've got the technology, but we're gonna keep someone in the car.Alright, everything's working well, we're just gonna put a trail car on that thing. And it's obviously that's going to increase costs from what they're probably expected long term cost is, but it's going to give a lot of confidence to the market. And look, you know, where I want to go. Vegas, someone.

Paul Daly: 13:57

You know, when David Long, David Long, like, took a ride in the car that was driven by someone like in Europe or whatever. And I was like, I'm not getting in the car where somebody else has the controls.I'd have a robot drive at first,like autonomy, but I would love to have a car delivered to me.And then I'll drive it. And that's fine. Yes. It's amazing to the rental car. Oh, it's terrible isn't on the planet. No one has figured out how to make that good. Nobody, zero. Unless it's like I see them on commercials. And maybe I just don't have the level where you like you can just walk into the place walk right into your car,because just drive it. It just feels like that's always closed.Or it's terrible. It's always terrible. I mean, they try to do a good job, but they just can't it just don't do it. So I don't know, this would be really cool.And then when you're done, you just get out of the car and it goes away. It's like a little like one of those little vo scooters. Right? I just leave them laying around. Like we'll just pick up the car when we're ready. I mean, it's your things and all that. Oh, man. That feels like too much fun for Friday. Thank you for everyone in the comments. Great, Frank.I'm sorry, we didn't get to yours. Yeah, the tax incentives gonna fit Replacing but we have a Friday and a Saturday and a Sunday to get through. So let's go deal with a smile.

Get the daily email that makes reading the news actually enjoyable. Stay informed and entertained, for free.