Economists Are Cool Too with Charlie Chesbrough

Paul Daly: 0:00Well, I'm excited because I actually hit my recordUnknown: 0:03

this is Auto Collabs. button this time

Kyle Mountsier: 0:04

That's impressive. It's there's a lot of moving parts when it comes to like getting on a Zoom call and you know, pressing record lots of moving parts recording video

Michael Cirillo: 0:21

recording audio, you know, how do I use this? Push a button. Yeah,

Kyle Mountsier: 0:30

I mean, it's hard because like Cirillo, again, he has a device that he gets to use to remind himself, which is a comb right now.

Paul Daly: 0:38

He has to reach the press, you know, one of the first podcasts that I did years ago, it was in person with this, like a local Syracuse businessman who's a young guy. And it was also like, super fit like a fitness influencer, like, really before fitness influencers were everywhere and had a big following. And, and so he has a local restaurant here, and I just saw him as like, Hey, can you be on my podcast? At some point? He's like, sure. I show up, set up in the restaurant. We talked for like, and that was back when they're like, Yo, we're gonna make it count. We're doing 30 40 minutes, right? In fact, when podcasting was the thing, crush the whole thing. Yeah, well, I crushed the whole thing. And about five minutes before it was over, you know what I realized 100% didn't hit the record, button. And I will never forget his face. When I was like, hey, so had a couple of technical difficulties with my finger, that record button. So the second time review credit, he was really gracious. And the second time we recorded though, it was like, you know, 18 minutes, and probably a lot better than the 40 minute version. There you go. That's perfect. But he never talked to me again. I'm just

Kyle Mountsier: 1:49

Well, we are we are handling. We're talking to a new friend of ours, Charlie Chesbrough. Today, which we think maybe from Paul's original 40 to 18 minute experience podcasting, we've got a little bit more leverage on our expertise and skill. However, when it comes to economists man, I know that I've got a lot to learn, you know, Cox, we've gotten to know Jonathan Smoke. And every time he speaks, I'm like, tuned in pen to paper. Because there's just what I'm realizing is that we can extrapolate so much from the data that that some of these companies have into what we're doing on the on the boots on ground level. So I'm excited to kind of see like, where are we at, from their perspective, from his perspective and kind of current market data and where the market might be headed? Because there is right now, it's almost like you can't look at the data too tight, but you have to look at it, because it can tell the story. For sure.

Michael Cirillo: 2:46

So with all of that anticipation built, boys, let's get our record button fingers ready and jump into this conversation with Charlie Chesbrough.

Kyle Mountsier: 3:04

Charlie Chesbrough it is so good to have you on the auto collabs podcast. I think this is the very first time we've had anyone with economist in their title on the podcast, Senior Economist and senior director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. Thanks for being on Charlie.

Charlie Chesbrough: 3:19

Yeah. Thanks so much for having me. I'm honored to be here. Yeah. Awesome. So

Kyle Mountsier: 3:23

okay, first question. And this is a big one. Is it Charlie or Charles? Because I've seen them different places all over the internet. Where am I headed here? Yeah,

Charlie Chesbrough: 3:32

we're going with Charlie these days. Little bit less formal. Maybe doesn't sound right. We're going with

Kyle Mountsier: 3:39

it. He's like, kinda like the COVID. Beard. The no tie. It's Charlie.

Paul Daly: 3:43

Tie. Charlie is chillin out a bit post COVID? Charlie.

Kyle Mountsier: 3:48

I love it. I love it. Well, appreciate you coming on today. You know, it's interesting, because we've had Steve Greenfield on the show before. And a lot of times when I think when we when we kind of hear and, you know, a lot of people have seen you around events and on on interviews, both inside and outside of automotive just because of the presence of Cox and the data that it has. But a lot of times economists kind of get put in this bucket where it's like, these guys have the data, they say the data and then they get out. And what I want to what I want to start with is, you know, obviously everyone kind of has the how they got in automotive story. And it looks like you have a history outside of automotive, looking at data and looking at markets. And I'd love to hear kind of that how that transition works. How looking at data and markets outside of automotive has moved you into auto and giving you a perspective that's maybe altogether different.

Charlie Chesbrough: 4:43

Yeah, boy, well, I gotta go way back if you're gonna cover my whole career because it really started in the late 1980s. My my first job out of college was working as a floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade. So I was one of those guys with a phone on my head yelling arbitrage orders and it was crazy. It's really that Crazy. Just it was really that crazy? And who are

Paul Daly: 5:03

you yelling at? I think a lot of people don't know that, like, Who are you yelling to?

Charlie Chesbrough: 5:08

Well, I had traders on the phone in New York that were asking me to put out orders. So they'd be like, you know, sell 50 and 50. And that'd be like, you know, like that and our being in order to our Trader out in the pit, and they'd scream and get the order, and then I'd yell it back on the phone and wait, it was filled. And yeah, it's pretty crazy environment. first started, actually seems

Paul Daly: 5:30

a little Neanderthal ik to me at this point.

Charlie Chesbrough: 5:33

It doesn't exist anymore. It's been replaced by computers.

Paul Daly: 5:36

So I have to ask, I'd never knew the answer to that question.

Unknown: 5:40

No, it was a really unique environment, I have to say, a lot like trading, trading places, if you remember that. Perfectly. Right. But no, I started there. And I really started looking at data there to really kind of understand financial data and all of that. But it was really a few years after that, when I started working for a telecom company, and everybody had a phone number. And it was what that unique phone number that I was able to bring together, like, hey, we could link in their customer satisfaction data. And we could link in here, what phone did they purchase data and all this other information, because we had that unique phone number. And from that, I was able to get into the automotive industry, where we had the VIN, the vehicle identification number, and again, this is early 2000s, late 1990s, it was kind of new to be building big databases like this. And so I started working at Ford and their marketing strategy group and from there had worked for a number of companies in automotive, but I've been with Cox for a little over five years now. And it's a really interesting company in automotive, because we have so much information as to what's happening, really, once the vehicle is built, Cox Automotive has a has a finger involved in all aspects of the vehicle market of getting that vehicle, you know, from the factory, to the dealer to the consumer, all of that we've got our hands on everything,

Kyle Mountsier: 6:56

okay, I, this whole Telecom, to the, you know, to auto relationship is really it's coming out in a lot of different places for me right now. Because even even when you look at like consumer side in, in thinking about trade cycle management, and all of the things that Telecom, it seems like, always kind of has an edge up on automotive and like a three to five year edge on the things that they're thinking about and looking at. And, you know, to think, okay, the center of the data in telecom, is, is the customer cell phone, but the center of the data and automotive is the vehicle record, more primarily. And now, it's interesting, because maybe we're 20 20 years behind, but it seems like we're actually moving back to an idea where the center of the data in automotive is the telephone, again, the and then like, the connected data is potentially the VIN, or have you seen other trends along the way, where you like, you probably still kind of like, keep the pulse of telecom, I'm guessing, because you have that history. But what are the trends were like, like, auto maybe maybe we're seeing something that Telecom was doing three or four years ago, that now you're starting, that we're starting to learn in automotive that we need to be looking at, I don't know, I'm just thinking there's more parallels there that you're probably not seeing because your perspective, I

Charlie Chesbrough: 8:22

think you're onto something there. I mean, one that we're seeing in automotive is a lot of the futuristic talk is, is that it's going to be customer data captured within the vehicle that is going to be monetized. And the auto companies are going to figure out a way to to make money on your, on your medical information, or bio rhythms, whatever they can kind of capture as you're sitting in that vehicle seat on top of information they might gather as you drive around. And it's sort of a data vacuum connecting to various Wi Fi networks and where you're going. And, you know, there's grandiose ideas of what they can do with all this data. And that's all tied to telecom as well, in terms of the customer being the focus of the data. But the other thing that's going to be kind of interesting with automotive is that we've seen over the last few years, what I kind of described as the the iPhone occation of the vehicle product planning, you know, it used to be you built a vehicle, you sold that vehicle, essentially unchanged for three or four years, maybe longer if you could. And then that was sort of the way to be the most profitable. But nowadays, there were finding that you have to upgrade that vehicle much more frequently with more technology, more bells and whistles on that vehicle. People aren't willing to just let a vehicle be unchanged for long periods of time. And it's much like with the iPhone, yeah, you got ahead, add more stuff every version or else why buy the next version when my old versions just fine. And I think we're seeing more of that within automotive and that's a real challenge for the industry because there's a long lead time in product planning with automotive and having to turn around things quickly and be more flexible in manufacturing has been a challenge for the industry but thus far they seem to have been doing it fairly well.

Kyle Mountsier: 9:59

All right before Paul asked this question because he's got a question. I'm bringing a a shirt to ASOTU CON for you. It's going to be called the iPhone ification of automotive. Perfect. I love it.

Paul Daly: 10:11

That's the hard hitting documentary the iPhone ification of the automotive industry featuring Charlie Chesbrough. Okay, so, Mike now the t shirt, and that show just totally got me off my game right now, when it comes to using economic Oh, no, no, you said the the planning cycles for automotive are usually further out. Do you see those condensing? Like because of I mean, okay, well ask what you're seeing. And then what you actually predict, in the sense that planning cycles with EV platforms might be a little bit maybe easier, just because like the the drive train is so standardized across models. Do you see that planning cycle compressing? Or do you still think it has to be the same because of the way the manufacturing process is? In general? So I'm just curious now that you mentioned that what you think it's going to be? And you know, is it getting fast? Yeah,

Unknown: 11:06

I think the future is is that EV platform should be able to be redesigned much more quickly, with the idea of sort of a skateboard idea, right, where you've got the bottom, guts, the powertrain of the vehicle, and you just kind of slap a different top on top of it to make a whole bunch of different versions of the vehicle. That's sort of the idea of where EV manufacturing is essentially going to be going. But we're not there yet. So I don't know that there's a big savings on time just yet in terms of product planning that's been experienced by the manufacturers. But it's still a fight, you know, they're working today, the engineers are working today on the vehicles are going to be coming out and 26 27 28. You know, there's a very long lead time, and you've got to set up your supply base, and you know, who's going to make what part. And when it comes to electric vehicles, one of the big challenges the industry is dealing with right now is sourcing future batteries, right? You know, everybody wants to be making and selling a million EVs, every manufacturer a couple of years from now, but right now, those batteries don't exist to even put into those vehicles. So you know, there's a

Paul Daly: 12:08

So it's obvious that you're very well versed, right, lot of planning going forward that the EV market is going to get much bigger and sell many more vehicles. But in terms of the the supplies being there to make all that happen, we don't have that yet in the industry. And that has to be built as well. and from top to bottom in the automotive ecosystem. But we're here to talk economics for a minute. And I know it all comes together, can you give us a baseline because we try to teach to the back of the class, especially with some of these and you know, Auto Collabs podcast is about really drawing a big circle around as many people in the industry as we can and having them take a step closer. So can you give us like the 101 on what economic indicators we should be relying on the economist for and what that should be doing to our decision making?

Charlie Chesbrough: 13:01

Well, boy, that's a big question.

Paul Daly: 13:06

6 second packet forest and just saw,

Charlie Chesbrough: 13:08

I mean, there's a lot of there's a lot of metrics that economists look at that are going to tell us, you know, will the will the economy slip into recession, and you know, unemployment start to rise, those types of things. And certainly, I would say all Americans should be aware of those types of things like the yield curve, inverting where you get more a higher interest rate on a near a shorter term loan than you do a longer term loan. We've had that happen in the in the economy recently. And that's generally an indicator that we're going to slip into recession at some point in the near future. You know, there's sort of those are kind of big numbers. But the more practical numbers, I think can really affect consumers and their daily lives are certainly interest rates and what the Federal Reserve policy is, is and what it will be that type of dramatic change over just the last couple of months. And it's going to continue to be quite volatile over the next, certainly over the next two years. And of course, just energy costs and food costs. We've seen gasoline costs spike dramatically, and they've coming down almost just as dramatically. That's a sector in the economy energy, in particular, with this Ukraine war going on, that's going to remain very volatile. We saw natural gas prices hit a record level just today or yesterday. Yeah. You know, this is all going to have an impact on the future of the economy and people's ability to buy vehicles both new and used. And it's going to have an impact on their overall consumer confidence. We've seen consumer cost confidence has fallen dramatically over the last few months as people get really concerned about inflation. And one thing we know about the US economy is nothing makes people feel worse than seeing high prices at the gas pump that just kills the American consumer. They hate it. It's right in their face every day. The cost of filling up that gas tank, and it really peaked just a couple of weeks ago. And like I said, it's getting better. But that's a metric that people in to watch because and certainly dealers need to pay attention to because that's going to kind of gauge the mood of the consumers as they're shopping here in the fall.

Kyle Mountsier: 15:07

Well, I think I think that's really interesting that like, you didn't start with, you know, inventory dynamics, or the ability of automakers have you started with, how are consumers perceiving the market? What's their ability to purchase? And then we back into all of the other layers of data, right? Because if the consumer if the end user of the thing that we're selling has a certain perception or ability or capacity to engage with us, based on their, you know, the way that they're perceiving the market are their own jobs or their own, or their own personal economy, then that backs into, like, what inventory? Do we need what what type of the sales process or marketing process or all of that is predicated on really the consumer experience, which is, like, I'm just gonna be honest, I wouldn't, I wouldn't typically expect, you know, anyone that's looking at data to lead with experience data from a customer perspective is the first thing and so one, I just want to say I appreciate that. But to just like, for the dealers, and for the industry partners listening to this, like, if a data centric person that is an economist, and speaks to economy on a broad scale, and understands the and understands the inventory, and they're looking at the consumer first, then we all should be doing that

Paul Daly: 16:28

I feel so validated, I feel so validated because every morning, right, we're always like, pay attention to how your consumers feeling coming in because of this, that and the other. And now we just have, you know, a senior economist come in and say, let's think about how the customer is thinking about this, when they walk into your store. I love it so much.

Kyle Mountsier: 16:50

I know that and then so I want to I we're all over the place. We're excited, we're excited. But you keyed in on this thing, where it's like the, the perception of the economy is driven by the fact that the prices that you see as you drive around on a daily basis, are driven by two types of billboards, one, paid billboards, and two gas price billboards, because that's the only time that we see prices out and about when we're not actually in shopping mode. And I had never considered that. So you said that I mean, I knew that everyone who kind of looks at gases, but or that, that looks at gas prices, but that it's a daily kind of reminder, no matter where you go, whether you're shopping

Charlie Chesbrough: 17:35

every day, it's the interface. And one of the interesting things that we've seen out there, it really is post COVID, is that because we've had this shock to the US economy, the composition of who is buying vehicles has changed dramatically. And that we've seen, we can actually see in our data the prior and post sort of March of 2020, the average interest rate that people are paying, when they sign a contract, when they purchase a new vehicle has fallen dramatically, sort of about 6% was the average interest rate, it fell to about a four and a half percent interest rate, not because interest rates went down. But because all of the folks that were paying 10% and higher interest rates, much that were that were lifting the Average fell out of the market. So the what remains are only higher credit better credit quality votes. That's what can afford, who can afford to buy a new vehicle these days. And the other thing that's really interesting with that is that the average interest rate that the different brands cater to who their customers are varies greatly. Subaru and Honda customers and Volvo customers, on average, they're getting like a tooth two or 3% interest rate on average is what those customers are paying when they buy a vehicle. When you get into a a Mitsubishi or a Dodge, you know, their interest rates can be 10% plus, and some of them that man so difference in the type of person, because the interest rate kind of reflect reflects the credit quality of the of the person who would be coming in as to what they would qualify for for an interest rate. And so who's vulnerable in that environment, when interest rates go up dramatically, you would just think that folks that are that the brands that cater to a higher interest rate customer are going to be more vulnerable than those brands catering to a lower interest rate customer. Because the higher interest rate customers are really going to see their interest rates rise here as interest rates go up in this environment. And the other as a result of all of this of the of the lower credit score folks dropping out of the new vehicle market, Whoever remains in the new vehicle market buying vehicles today has is getting a very similar interest rate. So we've consolidated consumers. So before we hit consumers, getting anywhere from zero to 15% interest rates, it's all consolidated down that we have a much smaller group of variation around that so that all of the brands are pretty much key During the same kind of financial customer today, you don't have a big variation. So it's getting that much more competitive out there. In terms of competition, when who's in the vehicle market buying today? Well, financially, they're very similar customer across the board.

Kyle Mountsier: 20:15

So we have, we have two types of sidelined new car buyers, then because the type that I've heard the majority about is silent, sidelined due to inventory capacity, right that people can't find the car that they want. So they sideline and say they're going to hold out. But what you're saying is that we've got a sideline buyer set that is that, but also a sideline buyer set that is potentially in a higher credit tier lower income, that are a lower to credit tier lower income that can't afford to purchase on the current interest rates and prices. And that's also sideline new car buying, might have pushed to use car buying, but probably also sidelining that buying. So as things regulate, or or marketing is attenuated to those places that we're still going to see inventory sidelining because we can't, we cannot have, we can't even get those customers in those cars, because there's not availability.

Charlie Chesbrough: 21:09

And then you got it. So yeah, we have both of these forces going on. If there's there's folks that have left the market, and there's folks that are kind of sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy for those products to come in. But all of it suggests that the the the market going forward is going to be a little bit weaker, that we've lowered our longer term forecasts, we think it's going to be a real challenge to get back to a 17 million new vehicle market here in the next couple of years. And that we're probably now on a different trajectory for the new vehicle market.

Paul Daly: 21:38

If we're in next year, saying two to three years,

Charlie Chesbrough: 21:41

we're already maybe even longer that it's it's no there, we're the prospect of going back to a 17 million plus markets, sort of the 2018 19 types of markets that we had, seems less likely the longer this chip shortage goes on, the inventories remain lean. Because on the flip side of all of this, and everybody kind of complaining they can't find their products, the revenues have been relatively strong for the main factors, sales are down, but the per unit profits are the margins are looking very, very strong, they pull back dramatically on incentives. We know that they're pulling back and some of their marketing budgets. And all of this means that the margins are quite strong, and they don't need to sell 17 million just to sell the same confidence. Yeah. And just to give you a back of the envelope in 2019. In our own data transaction price times sales was about a 57 billion market total. In 2022. It was a $60 billion, excuse me, 2021, it was a $60 billion market $3 billion higher, and we sold nearly 2 million fewer vehicles, I saw the higher prices are really mitigating a lot of the smaller volumes. Do you believe that much of a need for the industry to get back to the way it was?

Paul Daly: 22:58

I mean, do you think that this? I'm no, I'm just kind of guessing here? If there's higher availability of inventory? And there's lots of incentives going on? Does that incentivize consumers to get flip cars more often? Cycle through faster? You know, like, hey, there's a good deal, I can get this new car cheaper. So maybe instead of every four years, I'm going every three year and every three, I'm going like two and a half? Do those two things tied together? Because if so, this limited supply could actually prolong cycle times, you know, over time, and maybe reduce overall profits? Are you following what I'm saying?

Charlie Chesbrough: 23:38

I am. One area we definitely see is in the leasing side of the business. Right. So in a normal sort of pre COVID market, about 30% of all retail purchasing or retail activity was a lease that's fallen dramatically in the post COVID market. And in fact, I think the most recent data point we had from June was 17%. So from 30, down to 17% is what leasing share is those are folks that every two to three years are getting a new vehicle, they're they're churning through these things, but they backed away from the market, there's just as much as that cut. It's a huge cut. And part of it is is intentional, that the they're not making great lease deals anymore. They'd much rather sell you a vehicle manufacturers then lease you a vehicle

Kyle Mountsier: 24:26

because you just said they reduced incentives and so they reduce marketing costs, which makes a whole bunch of sense right? Because you don't need to mark it as hard to customers when there was no selling selling right. Yeah, but but it's really wild that the American consumer you know, a lot of attention is being placed on dealers raising prices, Evey manufacturers raising prices, but technically what like legacy manufacturers have done over the pandemic is raise prices by not having incentives, which is a really interesting like when way to perceive that and so they've raised prices by not having incentives, which thereby increases, the bottom line is already baked. And so the profitability is still there. And that's been an argument

Charlie Chesbrough: 25:13

that they've cut back on on the discounting. Absolutely. And they're focusing on making the most expensive products, or the highest margin products.

Kyle Mountsier: 25:23

Back to your who the target market, right,

Charlie Chesbrough: 25:26

the more affluent buyer, which is who was in the market today. And it's made, it's been a long term trend, you know, the affluent buyers who's buying a new vehicle, but it's really made a stronger shift, even in post COVID market that higher incomes is who's buying the new vehicle these days? Oh,

Paul Daly: 25:42

my goodness, well, look, we're gonna have so much obviously, to talk about at ASOTU CON in just a couple of weeks from now, Charlie, it's gonna be great to meet you in person and just watch you mix it up with all the dealers and other industry partners, not just when you're on stage, but also in the room. And throughout the event. I hope you can stay. And you know, and trade ideas and bring us along a little more. Thank you so much for spending some time with us today and the auto clubs community on behalf of Kyle and myself and the whole community. Thanks for joining us.

Charlie Chesbrough: 26:10

Yeah, well, thanks for having me. And I look forward to meeting you in a few weeks.

Kyle Mountsier: 26:17

You know, it honestly blows my mind. The fact that leasing post COVID is down almost 50% of what it was down from 30% to 17%. The implications of that, you know, a lot of people talk about what the market is smell. Yeah. So what what's happening right now, with inventory chip shortages, the way the market is interest rates everybody's talking about right now. But what that tells me is that in two, three and four years, the used car market, the way vehicles are acquired lease, retention, brand retention, is significantly at risk. And there's, there has to be this mentality. Like we typically we think about a lot of our data and auto of like year over year, month over month, we have to start thinking in these two to three year timelines on how are we going to retain that customer? How are we getting that customer back when it's not a large portion of leases in new car purchases? It's a it's a problem that I don't think we're like, we should be game planning for that two and three years in the future. And that's hard to do on there in a month a month business,

Paul Daly: 27:20

that's not going to happen. I mean, we just watched a lot of cycles of this happen over the years, where you have like, a glut and then you have a scarcity. And then you have a it really is the natural ebb and flow of this business. And it even if you look back, you see that there's always like, I don't know if you've ever seen a new thing, right? There's always a Karelian deaths destroyer waiting to destroy the Earth, right? It's always gonna happen. But I'll tell you what, I didn't know economist for so much fun. I thought Jonathan Smoke was like an anomaly book, but Charlie kind of like he's like, Oh, that's how you're on and Okay. Okay. I think we cool.

Michael Cirillo: 27:55

I don't know if I have what it takes to ever consider anything to do with being an economist, because I feel like I would just be worried all the time for people. Oh, my gosh, oh. Yeah. Yeah, exactly.

Paul Daly: 28:13

There's a meteor coming in. I can't let you know about it.

Michael Cirillo: 28:16

Right. And that you're right, Kyle, like, to your point, I think it was really interesting how he draws parallels to something like telecom first, because it's something that we can all relate to. And we are all constantly like, what just happened? as of recent, the iPhone 14 drops? What are all the cell phone companies doing? Like, you know, they were prepped? well in advance of like, Hey, here's how you're gonna get out of your 13 or your 12. Here's how you can like they had the whole process laid out. And I always find it intriguing, especially when it comes to that in automotive where we're like, what in the heck, Hutton? Where did retin 10 games come from? And you're like, Oh, you mean the thing that happens at the exact same time every single year for the last 87,000 years? Why is this a surprise,

Paul Daly: 29:00

though? True? So true. Well, look, how Go ahead. Ah, you're gonna Well, I'm gonna tell you you got well do well, well, oh, we hope that we've helped change your perspective of economists to know like they're actually the people you want to hang around with at a party because there's so much dang fun. We had a great time with Charlie on behalf of Michael Cirillo, Kyle Mountsier and myself. Thanks for listening to the Auto Collabs. We'll see you next time.

Unknown: 29:23

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