The end of last year was a bit better than we thought: real GDP growth got bumped up to 3.4% from an earlier guesstimate of 3.2%, and folks spent a bit more too, with personal consumption up to 3.3%.
However, income growth hit the brakes in February, only going up by 0.3% compared to January's 1.0% boost. But hey, people didn’t stop opening their wallets—especially on services, where spending rose to 3.4%.
But (there’s always a but), with faster spending growth and slower income growth, the personal savings rate declined to 3.6%, the lowest it’s been since December 2022.
Even with some ups and downs, the S&P 500 managed to jump 10% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, bond yields went up because the market’s betting that interest rates will stay high for a bit.
Gas prices increased slightly in March (1% YOY) with the national average price for unleaded gas at $3.54/gallon.
Americans are showing cautiously increased optimism about the economy, with the sentiment index rising as positive perceptions gain ground.
The current economic outlook has brightened a bit, with 30% of U.S. adults viewing conditions as excellent or good, nudging the index up to a -9 score.
This marks an improvement from the -15 score in March and a significant uptick from -31 back in November.
Positivity hasn't been this high since June 2021, signaling that consumers have boosted confidence but are still treading lightly.
Harvard's latest dive into housing reveals some eye-opening stats about U.S. renters in 2022:
A whopping 50% of renters now spend more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities, with 27% forking over half their income on housing.
This crunch means folks have way less cash for other essentials, with their residual incomes taking a major hit.
The squeeze is real: those hit hardest are cutting back big time—39% less on food and 42% less on healthcare compared to folks living more comfortably.
New retail sales held steady this week, maintaining their ground after five consecutive weeks of growth, and impressively stand 13% higher than this time last year.
Despite a slight 6% dip in transactions this week, the used vehicle market's strong performance shines through, with sales still up by 7% year-over-year, following nine weeks of consistent gains.
Checking out the latest in car inventory shows a bit of a mixed bag:
This week, new car stock is hanging tight at 2.81M units, which is a hefty 49% jump from last year (though we're still 26% down from the glory days of 2019).
As for the days supply of new cars, we've seen a small bump of 1% bringing us up to 75 days on hand, which is about 18 days or 32% over last year's figures.
On the used car side, inventory took an opposite 1% dip this week but is showing a solid 7% growth year-over-year. Compared to 2019, we're sitting pretty at 4% higher – the biggest leap we've seen since folks started getting their tax refunds.
The used car days supply has also fattened up by 5% to 42 days, keeping pace with where we were at this time last year.
As we count down to tax day, there's a noticeable lag compared to last year.
As of March 22nd, tax refund processing is trailing by seven days behind last year's pace, and there's been a 7% dip in the number of refunds dished out.
Despite the slower start, we've crossed a pivotal point with 51% of anticipated refunds issued.
$169B have been doled out to Americans as of March 22nd, marking a slight 3% decrease year-over-year.
The average refund check is $3,081 (a 6% boost from last year).
The wholesale market’s spring scene is experiencing a seasonal uplift:
The majority of vehicle categories are experiencing a slight uptick in wholesale values, with an overall increase of 0.39% as reported by Black Book. The one outlier? Used electric vehicles, which are bucking the trend with declining values.
The auction scene is lively with a 0.39% increase in values from the previous week. Strong conversion rates and eager bidder participation are other signs of a strong market, but EVs seem to be missing out on a lot of the action.
The EV market has taken a turn this quarter, with both of the biggest players Tesla and BYD feeling the slowdown:
BYD's sales have nosedived by 43% after their headline-grabbing Q4 performance. Tesla's figures also dipped, though less sharply at 20%.
This downturn has sparked an aggressive price war, with BYD slashing prices in response to Tesla's cuts, making the competition even hotter.
Price-wise, BYD's offering more bang for your yuan – their Seagull model starts at just 69,800 yuan ($9,700), making it a super accessible EV option compared to Tesla's entry-level Model 3 at 245,900 yuan ($34,000).
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