2024-Casting

The new year is right around the corner, and data fanatics are pooling together all of their facts, figures, and expertise to provide insight into what the automotive industry is likely to look like in 2024. Here’s what the experts are seeing…

👀 Economic Outlook:

• Shakey Global Ground — Though modest earnings growth is projected in the new year, global financial services firms like J.P Morgan are expressing wariness about how risky investments and the overall economic outlook will pan out, especially when up against declining consumer strength and increased credit stress like rising credit card debt and auto loan delinquencies.
• On The Bright Side — The global economy is predicted to avoid a near-term recession and stubborn inflation is on a downward trend due to fading energy pressure and weaker labor markets.
• On the Not-So Bright Side — A global expansion slowdown is expected by mid-2025.

🚗 Industry Projections:

• Slow and Steady — U.S. sales volumes are expected to slow but still increase by 2%, reaching 15.9M units.
• Profit Pinch — Despite the modest increase, dealer profitability is expected to fall further in ‘24 as incentives and discounts
• Inventory Stabilized — New-vehicle inventory will likely hit pre-pandemic norms in the new year resulting in downward pressure on pricing by approximately 3%.
• Used & CPO Sales — Cox Automotive predicts minimal gains in the new year – less than one percent. They expect certified pre-owned sales to outpace used-vehicle growth and reach a 3% increase from 2023.
• Oversights and Regulation — With new governmental rulings like the CARS Rule and UN 155R, the auto industry is about to enter an era of much stricter data and security standards.
• Lean Means — US consumers in the market for a new vehicle in the new year will continue to face affordability issues because of those pesky high interest rates and tight credit conditions.
  

🪫 EV Predictions:

• Growth Meets Reality — EV sales are increasing, but customer acceptance is more gradual than expected.
• The Future of Sales — Cox Automotive anticipates EV sales in the U.S. will top the more than 1M-unit record set in 2023, and the share of electrified vehicles (EVs, Plug-in Hybrids, Hybrids) will increase to nearly 24% of the market next year.
• Affordability and Availability — Prices of EVs are dropping, and there's more inventory around. In fact, by the end of 2024, there will be nearly 100 BEV models available, double the number there were in 2022. Federal incentives and a projected 5% increase in EV leasing are expected to continue helping encourage purchases.
• The Biggest Challenge? — Convincing the average consumer of the benefits of EVs, no easy task according to dealers.